Reimagining Niagara Parks Commission: A

Reimagining Niagara Parks Commission: A Foresight Analysis

The Context

In a rapidly evolving world, the need for organisations to adapt and innovate is more pressing than ever. The Niagara Parks Commission (NPC), steward of one of Canada’s most iconic natural wonders, finds itself at a crossroads. The case study explores potential futures for NPC, focusing on sustainable development, community engagement, and environmental stewardship. The research and analysis, rooted in strategic foresight methodologies, offers a visionary outlook on how NPC can navigate the complexities of the future while preserving the essence of Niagara.

The Challenge

What is Regenerative Tourism?

Regenerative tourism represents an evolution in how we think about travel and its impacts on destinations. Unlike sustainable tourism, which minimises negative impacts, regenerative tourism aims to leave a positive footprint, actively revitalising and enhancing travel destinations' natural, cultural, and social environments.

Problem Framing

Tourism, while economically beneficial, poses significant environmental and social challenges. Regions like Hawaii and Australia have implemented regenerative tourism practices to mitigate these impacts, serving as models for NPC. However, these efforts must be tailored to Niagara’s unique context to avoid unintended negative consequences. Understanding NPC’s distinct traits is crucial to developing effective and sustainable tourism strategies.

Trends & Drivers

Environmental Destabilisation and Instability: Pollution and climate change impact natural resources and the tourist experience. NPC’s conservation efforts must adapt to these challenges.
Ageing Population: An older demographic presents both opportunities and challenges in healthcare, labour, and economic growth.
Local and Global Migration: Migration patterns contribute to Niagara’s cultural richness and necessitate adaptive infrastructure and services strategies.
Decolonisation: Recognising and integrating Indigenous rights and perspectives is essential for genuine reconciliation and sustainable development.
Everything as a Commodity: Tourism commodification can stimulate economic growth but risks environmental degradation and cultural dilution.

Scenario Building

Anchored by current signals, our identified trends, five strong drivers, and a robust understanding of the Niagara Parks Commission’s identity, we started to develop alternate futures for the year 2043 using Generic Images of the Future conversationally: Grow, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation.

We developed four potential scenarios for NPC’s future, each based on different responses to these drivers:

Growth (Wonderland): A highly commercialised future where economic gains are prioritised, potentially at the cost of social and environmental well-being.
Collapse (The Bill Comes Due): A future where NPC faces significant challenges due to environmental degradation and social unrest, leading to a rethinking of its strategies.
Discipline (The Real Wonderland): A sustainable and community-focused future where NPC leads in environmental conservation and social inclusivity.
Transform (NPC Edge Runner): A technologically advanced future where NPC leverages innovations to enhance tourism experiences while promoting environmental healing.

Artefacts from the Future

We created several foresight artefacts designed to bring future scenarios to life and illustrate the potential outcomes and impacts of different strategic paths. Through an in-person immersive experience using various artefacts from the future, We showcased the growth scenario to understand the consequences of maintaining the current status quo.

These artefacts help stakeholders visualise and understand the implications of each scenario, making the abstract concepts more tangible and actionable.

CEO Speech in the “Wonderland” Scenario: The speech outlines NPC's achievements and future plans under this scenario, emphasising commercial success and technological advancements while subtly highlighting the underlying tensions and challenges.
Protester Interruption: This artefact captures the societal and community tensions, reflecting concerns about over-commercialisation, environmental degradation, and the commodification of Indigenous culture.
Invitations, Newspapers, and Attractions: These artefacts highlight the role of media in shaping public opinions and policies in the future. Together, they inform the nature of the world that may exist in the future.

Learn more about the Case Study

The following link will take you to our Medium article to learn more about the project.